Re: [HOE] probabilities

[Matt Crawford <matt@severian.chi.il.us>]

> Of course if you're trying to hit a number over 10 (or 6 for the d4/d6)
> the higher die wins.

But when is it such a simple choice?  At one bounty-rich point,
I was thinking of raising my Deadlands shaman character's
Spirit from its 4d10 level.  For 36 bounty points (a bit more
than I had then, but not out of reach) it could go to 4d12.
Or for the same cost it could go to 7d10, and it could be done
in three increments.  Compare the final states:

 TN  4d12    7d10
  1  99.8    99.7 
  2  99.8    99.7 
  3  99.7    99.7 
  4  99.4    99.7 
  5  98.6    99.6 
  6  96.9    99.0 
  7  93.6    97.0 
  8  88.3    91.6 
  9  80.2    78.9 
 10  68.3    52.1 
 11  51.7    52.1 
 12  29.4    48.3 
 13  29.4    44.2 
 14  27.2    39.8 
 15  25.0    35.1 
 16  22.7    30.1 
 17  20.4    24.8 
 18  18.1    19.2 
 19  15.6    13.2 

When you're trying to get a raise on "Ask the Spirits" you're way
better off with 7d10 than 4d12.

	"Doin' it by the numbers since 1875!"