Re: [HOE] probabilities

[Matt Crawford <matt@severian.chi.il.us>]

You made two mistakes.  One was thinking I had made a mistake ...

> (Check me) To make things simple let's look at 2d10 vs. 3d10.
> Now there is ONE way to go bust on 2d10 (both 1's), and FOUR
> ways to go bust on 3d10 (1st and 2nd die, 1st and 3rd, 2nd and
> 3rd, all three). So that's 4x the odds!

There are 28 ways to go bust on 3d10:

9 ways with 1's on the red die and the green die, and 2 thru 9 on the blue.
9 ways with 1's on the red die and the blue die, and 2 thru 9 on the green.
9 ways with 1's on the green die and the blue die, and 2 thru 9 on the red.
1 way with 1's on all three dice.

28/1000 = 2.8%, compared to 1.0% on 2d10.

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