Re: [HoE] RE: [HOE] Dice odds

[The Baron Samedi <baron11@netmcr.com>]

At 12:18 AM 5/9/00, you wrote:
> > There was a discussion on Pyramid (www.sjgames.com/pyramid/) about
> > statisticts and probabilities for certain die systems. They were
> > discussing whether or not the Storyteller system from White Wolf was
> > really "simple", and the conversation was drifting towards the dice
> > mechanics. In particular, they were discussing odd little quirks like
> > the more dice you have, the more likely you are to botch (which is
> > actually true if you have only 1 die in your dice pool and
> > move up to 2 dice).
>
>Actually, that anomaly holds true with any dice pool in Storyteller where
>you have an even number of dice and gain one more (so it's now odd). It
>doesn't happen in the example you mention since MORE THAN HALF of the dice
>must be ones, so with 2 dice, they both have to be one's which is less
>likely than one one on one die. However, 2 dice need 2 ones to botch, and
>three dice need 2 ones to botch, so this means that there is actually more
>chance of botching with three than two. The same holds true with 4/5 dice
>and 6/7 dice and so on.
>
>Brian "Sorry.. just had to throw my oar in" Leybourne.

It is worth noting that with revised rules, if you have even one success 
(before 1s), you do not botch.

TBS