RE: [pbmserv] Broadcast from jolat via PBM Server

["Grooby, Peter" <Peter.Grooby@airways.co.nz>]

> I am surprised seeing that he proposes: 12-14 and 19-20.
> 19-20 seems to me very risky. Of what do you think of it?
I just did a quick rollout using gnu-backgammon (can't afford jellyfish)
It gave the following results.

   Move        Win   Win g Win bg  Lose  L g   L bg
1. 24/23 13/11 0.498 0.135 0.004 - 0.502 0.137 0.005
2. 13/11 6/5   0.496 0.141 0.006 - 0.504 0.150 0.009 
3. 24/21       0.487 0.127 0.005 - 0.513 0.138 0.005
4. 13/10       0.482 0.133 0.004 - 0.518 0.140 0.006

The conventional move is the preferred option. The alternate has
slightly less chance of a win, but an increased chance of a gammon or
backgammon win, but at the cost of an increased chance of losing a
gammon or backgammon.

Overall I would say both options are pretty even and you might base your
choice on your own preference for a more or less aggressive game. Also
against a less skilled opponent it is often better to go for the more
aggressive option.

Peter


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