Re: [HOE] probabilities

[Matt Crawford <matt@severian.chi.il.us>]

> Right, but the point is it's easier to roll a 10 on a d8 then it is on a
> d10. That's just... wrong. 

It's goofy, game-wise, but true anyway.  And even with more dice
there are still plenty of cases where more sides on the die will
reduce the chance of making some of the medium-high target numbers.
See http://www.corecomm.net/~crawford/tn-plots.html for pictures.

For more examples:
TN = 8   -- on 3d6: 35.3%; on 3d8: 32.4%.
            on 4d6: 44.9%; on 4d8: 41.3%.
TN = 10  -- on 3d8: 29.0%; on 3d10: 26.8%.

You may notice this happens far more seldom (perhaps never?)
when the target number is odd.  And the target number usually
is odd, isn't it?  Hmmm.