[HoE] Re: A thought on Population (long rant)

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In a message dated 9/6/99 12:41:51 PM Central Daylight Time, 
darrin@neobright.net writes:

<< As far as everything else that's been said about population... I think the
 source material has under-counted the population. If the population boom
 was anything like it is now only with 100 more years to increase
 exponentially, that's a huge a**load of people. Since about 90 to 95% are
 going to be living in major cities and urban areas, even killing off 90 to
 95% is going to leave a lot of people around. I'm not talking a few million
 here, more like several hundred million. >>

According to Population--An Introduction to Concepts and Ideas (7th Edition) 
the wolrd's population in 2050 will be 9.309 billion (this will be about the 
carrying capacity of the planet), of which just over 57% will live in Asia 
(including India and SW Asia).  In the US, which will be the 3rd most 
populous area in the world, there will be a population of 335 million in 
2025, with a growth rate of .8 percent per year (you can do the math for 2050 
or beyond), with 80% of the US population living in urban areas (cities of 
100,000 or more--probably worth a ghost rock bomb).  That leaves us with 67 
million left right after the bombs fall.  I realize that not everyone in the 
city will be killed, but this fudge factor will probably account for the 
deaths in the war up to that point.  Now consider that in the real world most 
people live east of the Mississippi or in CA (which doesn't exist in DL, or 
not enought to support a good size population).  Everyone east of the MS will 
be dead shortly when the Reckoners ride thru, and hordes of walking dead 
gotta eat (and who better to eat but the dazed survivors).  
Let's say that 60% of the remaining population lives east of MS, so that 
knocks us down to 26.8 million survivors.  Still sounds like a lot, but it's 
actually 7.5 people per sq mile of the US/CSA land area.  Then with the total 
breakdown in the transport net, food distribution sustem, and health care a 
lot more people die.  Right now in Russia we are seeing wide spread outbreaks 
of disease with their crumbling to nonexistant health care system, not to 
mention all the plaues set loose by Plague and the military of all sides.  
Remember, deaths due to non-battlefield injuries (ie sickness and disease) 
have always killed more people in every real life war, so our poor survivors 
would be hurting.  As for the population to recover, without vaccines, 
antibiotics, good health care, etc, the growth curve will be pretty shallow.  
I think the campaign with lots of empty ghost (or is it zombie) towns and a 
few huddled survivor settlements is appropriate 13 years after the Reckoning. 
 Remember, Fallout was set some 75 years after the bombs fell, and it was 
pretty desolate.  But hey, it's your campaign to do with as you will. :))

Jay Kyle, DVM