Re: [DL] Heavy Mathematical Answer to Dirk's Question - Long, too.

[Martha Frey <natasha_corey@yahoo.com>]

First off, I game with a person who does the same
thing, i.e. calculate percentages of die rolls.  I'm
forwarding your message to him because I'm sure he'll
get a kick out of it.

Second, thanks for sharing all your work with us!

Third, I'm going to say something that might throw
this whole discussion off.  What about luck,
preference and plain 'ol "player mojo?". 
Statistically I imagine it's nearly nearly impossible
to classify such phenomenon, but they do exist.  I
know, my GM constantally is amazed at the results.

Example:  My Blessed character uses a shot-gun, and
went up against a bunch of critters with 1 level of
armor.  Seeing as how we use the old rules, that drops
her damage to 6d4 (she was up close), or 7d4 after she
spent a white chip of Wrath.  An average roll on a d4,
using your calculation, is 21 (well technically 23
1/3, but you can't round a third on a dice face).  I
maimed every shot that combat; I never did less that
30 damage.

My explination has two parts, neither of which are
statistically valid.  First, I psychologically do
better with different dice based on how they feel in
my hand.  Sttrangely enough, my d8's always roll
better than a d12 (as far as end result is concerned).
 The second reason is purely mystic; I have been
accused of being incredibly (and frustratingly) lucky.
 *shrug*  I could do something about it, but why? 
Karmically it always balances out; when I slide I tend
to slide pretty hard.

If you've stuck it out this far, here's my question:
how do you Marshalls out there account for player
luck?  It's not always there, but when she rears her
ugly head, the b*tch has a habit of ruining your
perfect plan.  Do Fate chips help or hurt?

Marguerite of EMGB, otherwise known as Maggie Jensen
--- J Tolle <jwtolle@altavista.com> wrote:
> Short Answer:
> 
> average roll on 1d4 (open ended) =
> 
> the limit (as n goes to inifinty) of the sum (for
> all n from 1 to infinity) of [6(2n-1)(1/4^n)] =
> 
> well if i told you, would you read on?
> 
> Long Answer:
> 
<snip>


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